An independent guide to the big ocean changes

Ocean Turning Points explains the big changes under way or possible in the ocean: how likely each is, what it would mean for people and economies, and which decisions should change. It turns published science and open data into maps, charts and short explainers, with particular attention to developing countries.

It follows six changes: the Atlantic overturning circulation, coral reefs, the ice sheets, El Niño, fish stocks on the move and the subpolar North Atlantic, and keeps an eye on the Southern Ocean. It is written for people who make or advise on decisions, in finance and planning ministries, development banks, insurers and adaptation agencies. It does not make its own forecasts or run campaigns. Every map and claim traces to peer-reviewed research, an official dataset or an agency report, and each topic shows the date it was last reviewed.

Curator

Ocean Turning Points is created and curated by Dr Brenden Jongman, who works on climate resilience, ocean systems and adaptation and has spent more than 15 years working across research, policy and implementation.

At the World Bank, Brenden has led global programmes on nature-based solutions, ocean and coastal resilience, and disaster risk financing, after earlier work with the Red Cross, the European Commission and VU University Amsterdam. Brenden is an Honorary Research Associate at the University of Oxford’s Environmental Change Institute and holds a PhD in climate risk management from VU University Amsterdam. The research has appeared in Nature, PNAS and Nature Climate Change.

Personal website Google Scholar LinkedIn

Independence

This is a personal, independent project. It is not affiliated with, funded by or endorsed by the World Bank, the University of Oxford or any other organisation, and nothing on it represents their views or their research programmes. It carries no advertising and receives no funding.

Data and credits

Ocean Turning Points depends on the scientists who publish their model output and observations openly. Each map and chart names its sources next to it; the full list, licences and processing steps are in methods and data. Earth imagery is NASA’s Blue Marble, served by NASA GIBS. Coastlines and borders are from Natural Earth.

Research by Brenden Jongman

Forthcoming

Adapting to the risk of Atlantic circulation changeJongman, B. & Hall, J. W. (forthcoming).

Work in progress

Ocean observation for climate and development decisionsWhich decisions depend on which ocean observations, and why unbroken in situ records matter most for decisions that last decades.
Decision-making for a changing oceanHow to tell which decisions should change now, which need assessment first, and where current plans are robust to the big ocean changes.
Financing marine protectionHow the protection and long-term management of marine areas can be paid for.

Selected published research

Integrated spatial cost-benefit analysis of large-scale mangrove conservation and restoration in Indonesiavan Zanten, B., Brander, L., Castaneda, J.-P., et al. (incl. Jongman, B.) (2025). Frontiers in Environmental Science, 13, 1459034.
The fraction of the global population at risk of floods is growingJongman, B. (2021). Nature, 596, 37–38 (News & Views).
Forecast-based financing: an approach for catalyzing humanitarian action based on extreme weather and climate forecastsCoughlan de Perez, E., van den Hurk, B., van Aalst, M. K., Jongman, B., Klose, T. & Suarez, P. (2015). Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 15, 895–904.
Effective adaptation to rising flood riskJongman, B. (2018). Nature Communications, 9, 1986.
Global drivers of future river flood riskWinsemius, H. C., Aerts, J. C. J. H., van Beek, L. P. H., et al. (incl. Jongman, B.) (2016). Nature Climate Change, 6, 381–385.
Declining vulnerability to river floods and the global benefits of adaptationJongman, B., Winsemius, H. C., Aerts, J. C. J. H., et al. (2015). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 112, E2271–E2280.
Increasing stress on disaster-risk finance due to large floodsJongman, B., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Feyen, L., et al. (2014). Nature Climate Change, 4, 264–268.
Global exposure to river and coastal flooding: long term trends and changesJongman, B., Ward, P. J. & Aerts, J. C. J. H. (2012). Global Environmental Change, 22, 823–835.

A fuller list is on Google Scholar.